solar ham txt solar report

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Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Feb 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels as AR3590 (N17E32,
Fki/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of X1 flares at 21/2307 UTC and
22/0632 UTC. No apparent CMEs have been observed with these events as of
the time of this writing. Former AR3575 (S36, L=178) produced an M1.5
flare from around the SE limb at 22/0014 UTC. There was only one other
spotted AR on the visible disk, which has been stable and inactive for
several days.

An eruptive filament was observed starting around 21/1500 UTC in the
northwest quadrant and an eruptive prominence was observed around
21/1600 UTC on the southeast limb. Analysis and modeling showed the bulk
of the ejecta being ahead of Earths orbit. However, a glancing
influence remains possible on 25 Feb.

.Forecast...
Former AR3575, which has a history of producing X-class flares, is
expected to return to the visible disk on 22 Feb. Chances for
moderate solar activity and M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) will
increase as this AR comes into view over the next day or two. AR3590
also has the continued potential to produce M-class and greater flares.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) proton event for the next
three days (22-24 Feb) dur primarily to the potential of AR 3590. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to
moderate levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at nominal levels. Total field strength
peaked at 8 nT and Bz was variable. Wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s.
Phi was positive.

.Forecast...
Nominal levels are expected through 24 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels under a mildly enhanced
solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through 24 Feb.

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