solar flare watch

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A Second CME Observed
March 28, 2022 @ 23:50 UTC (UPDATED)
A second coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest coronagraph imagery courtesy of LASCO. This partial halo CME is related to the M1 flare activity produced by AR 2975 around 20:00 UTC (Mar 28). Somewhat of an Earth directed component may be possible. More to follow.

UPDATE: This second CME also appears to be Earth directed and is expected to possibly combine with the first CME observed on Monday. A passage past Earth is predicted by March 31st and could help enhance geomagnetic storm activity.

M4.0 Flare / Minor Radiation Storm / Earth Directed CME
March 28, 2022 @ 19:05 UTC (UPDATED)
UPDATE:

An official CME tracking model is now available with an Earth passage predicted on March 31st. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch will be in place. Aurora sky watchers should be alert during the next 48-72 hours.

ORIGINAL POST:

As I suspected yesterday evening, AR 2975 did finally produce a noteworthy solar flare.

An asymmetric halo CME is confirmed following an M4.0 solar flare event at 11:29 UTC (Mar 28). A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1259 km/s was detected. A minor (S1) radiation storm is currently in progress as energetic particles stream past our planet following the event. Although the majority of plasma appears to be directed to the north and west, an Earth directed component is likely. Early CME analysis shows a passage past Earth possible by March 31st. More updates regarding the official forecast to follow later this evening.

In the meantime, AR 2975 remains fairly volatile and will remain a threat for additional moderate M-Flares. There is now also an increasing chance for a major X-Class event.

AR 2975 Grows / Geomagnetic Update
March 27, 2022 @ 23:30 UTC (Updated)
Hello again. Here is a quick, yet fairly interesting solar update.

Earth facing active region (AR) 2975 expanded on Sunday in both size and magnetic complexity. A line between positive and negative polarity also appears to be forming and this could bode well for the chances of a noteworthy solar flare. This region will be monitored closely for additional development.

A new AR turned into view off the southeast limb and was numbered 2978. A secondary spot appears to be trailing the main dark core and is currently producing low level C-Flares. We will get a better look during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached Active (Kp4) levels. The solar wind stream did increase to around 500 km/s and is likely related to the onset of an expected coronal hole stream. A faint halo CME observed on March 25th is predicted to reach Earth at any moment, however as of this update, no impacts have been detected. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will remain in effect.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and updates.

 

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