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life in space with comets and asteroids ,
Asteroid Arrivals Board
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Assessing Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard
Predictions In The 21st Century
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No Hazard
(White Zone)
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0
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The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is
so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as
meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent
meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
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Normal
(Green Zone)
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1
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A routine discovery in which a pass near the
Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current
calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause
for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very
likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
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Meriting Attention
by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone)
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2
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A discovery, which may become routine with
expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly
unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there
is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is
very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to
re-assignment to Level 0.
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3
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A close encounter, meriting attention by
astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision
capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations
will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public
officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
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4
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A close encounter, meriting attention by
astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision
capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations
will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public
officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
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Threatening
(Orange Zone)
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5
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A close encounter posing a serious, but
still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by
astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision
will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental
contingency planning may be warranted.
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6
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A close encounter by a large object posing a
serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical
attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a
collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away,
governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
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7
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A very close encounter by a large object,
which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain
threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century,
international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine
urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.
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Certain Collisions
(Red Zone)
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8
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A collision is certain, capable of causing
localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close
offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per
several 1000 years.
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9
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A collision is certain, capable of causing
unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major
tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000
years and once per 100,000 years.
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10
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A collision is certain, capable of causing
global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as
we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average
once per 100,000 years, or less often.
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